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US Jobs Data Ahead
USCDAD traders in for a treat today with data on both sides of the border set to drive action. First we have the ADP employment number which will attract plenty of attention ahead of the coming NFP data on Friday. Following a drop in employment figures over the prior month, US rate expectations were scaled back heavily. Traders are now bracing for Friday’s data which, if weak again, should see USD heavily sold. As such, today’s data will be used as a gauge that reading. A weak number should fuel a fresh wave of selling in USD ahead of Friday while a strong number might see the current USD recovery continuing higher for now.
BOC Risks
Following that data, we then have the BOC December rate decision. The bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold given the drop off in inflation we’re seeing in Canada and the slowdown in growth. As we saw last time around, the bank is likely to reiterate a message of willingness to hike further if necessary. However, if the bank is heard sounding less hawkish or more constructive on inflation hitting target, this should send CAD lower near-term, particularly if preceded by an upside surprise in US jobs data.
Technical Views
USDCAD
The recent sell off in USDCAD has seen the market breaking below the bull trend line from YTD lows and back under the broken bear trend line. Though 1.3510 support is holding for now, while below 1.3685 the focus is on a further push lower and a break down towards the 1.3280 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.