EUR Lower Following ECB
Yesterday’s July ECB meeting saw a muted response in EUR. While the ECB pushed ahead with the larger-than-expected .5% rate hike, the bank’s accompanying guidance was less hawkish than previously. On the back of the meeting, traders have scaled back their rate-hike expectations for the remainder of the year. The ECB noted that eurozone activity is slowing, citing the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. While the bank forecasts that further rate hikes will likely be appropriate, it noted that any future action will be decided on a data-dependent basis.
EUR has been weaker on the back of the meeting. Looking at EURCAD in particular, opportunities for fresh downside plays are building. The BOC hiked rates by a full 1% this month along with delivering a resolutely hawkish set of forward guidance, suggesting the need for further tightening over the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, this divergence between the more hawkish stance of the BOC and more cautious stance of the ECB looks likely to weigh on EURCAD.
Technical Views
EURCAD
The pair has been grinding lower within a clear bear channel this year. Price recently broke below the 1.3384 level and is currently sitting on support at the 1.3031 level. With the retail market around 70% long, there is plenty of room for a downside break here. Bears can look for a downside break of this level targeting 1.2776 initially.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.