Type:
Bearish Downside
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1862.5
Pivot: 1854.2
Support: 1831.4
Preferred Case:
Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our daily descending trendline. We see the potential for bearish downside from our Pivot at 1854.2 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 1831.4 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI being close to levels where dips previously occurred.
Alternative Scenario:
If prices continue its uptrend, they can potentially break our 1st resistance at 1862.5 in line with 200% Fibonacci projection, also a recent swing high.
Fundamentals:
Previously, as the anti-fiat yellow metal contended to rising US dollar and bond yields, we saw a weak bearish turn in the commodity. Amidst escalated tensions between Russo-Ukraine crisis, potential for invasion are calling for a slightly less hawkish FED, supporting a overall bullish bias on the commodity. As technical analysis does not agree with our fundamentals, we await further confirmation from FOMC Member Bullard's speech and also PPI data release.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.