Daily Market Outlook, November 12, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Nvidia Governance Shock Checks AI Rally As UK Growth Holds Firm

Asian equity markets retreated on Thursday as an acute after-hours selloff in Nvidia halted the recent artificial intelligence relief bounce, injecting governance and key-person risk directly into the global semiconductor complex. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%—snapping a three-day winning streak—while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped ~1.0% into the European open. Flat Dow futures underscore the concentrated nature of the shock: rather than a broad macro capitulation, dealing desks are aggressively repricing AI leadership after Nvidia plunged as much as 10% in late trading.

The immediate catalyst centers on reports that Nvidia’s board convened to discuss CEO Jensen Huang amid security and relationship allegations involving potential Chinese espionage ties, alongside an external search for potential successors. Because Nvidia serves as the linchpin of hyperscale infrastructure visibility, the headline immediately spilled across Asian supply chains. Taiwan’s Taiex tumbled 2.6% on TSMC weakness, while South Korean memory leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix came under heavy selling pressure. Markets with broader domestic momentum fared better, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 navigating choppy trade near 61,500 and mainland Shanghai posting modest gains.

Fixed income and currency markets absorbed cross-cutting impulses of equity volatility and persistent inflation. As cash US Treasuries reopened following Veterans Day, the 30-year yield dipped 2 bps to 5.33% while the 10-year held steady near 4.99%. Duration upside remains firmly capped by Tuesday’s hot October CPI print (0.4% headline, 0.3% core m/m), which rebuilt December Fed rate-hike expectations and locked the US Dollar in a position of strength. In FX, the Indonesian rupiah plunged to a record low—prompting central bank intervention—while the Japanese Yen hovered dangerously close to the psychological 160.00 threshold, keeping Ministry of Finance intervention risk elevated.

Energy markets offered vital disinflationary relief. Brent crude slipped below $92.00/bbl to two-month lows as increased Middle East output and President Trump’s remarks signaling no further military strikes against Iran compressed geopolitical risk premia. While sub-$92 oil eases headline inflation fears, spot Gold continued to slide under the weight of elevated real yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve posture.

In the UK, Q3 GDP confirmed notable economic resilience, expanding 0.7% q/q and 1.9% y/y in line with consensus. Growth was underpinned by a 1.0% q/q expansion in business-to-business services—fueled by a 4.4% surge in AI and cloud-linked computer programming—demonstrating that digital infrastructure capex is translating into tangible real-economy output. However, softer consumer-facing services (+0.5% q/q) and looming winter energy bills argue for policy caution. Paired with Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli’s call for gradualism, the data supports the Bank of England holding fire in December before delivering a follow-up rate hike in February.

Macro to Micro: The cross-asset narrative has shifted from AI capex monetization to acute key-person and governance risk at the heart of the semiconductor ecosystem. While Nvidia's shock temporarily tightens financial conditions via equity volatility, hot US core inflation and resilient UK output prove that underlying real-economy demand remains too firm for central banks to pivot dovish. For traders, immediate tactical focus centers on Nvidia board communications, TSMC and Korean chip follow-through, US 10-year yield resistance at 5.00%, USD/JPY intervention defenses near 160, and Friday’s US PPI print.

Overnight Headlines

  • Iran: Hormuz Remains Closed Till Supreme Leader Orders Reopening

  • Vance Considers Direct Talks With Iranian Hardliner To End War

  • Iran Targets Shipping Nav Systems On Oman's Didamar Island

  • Saudi Arabia: Debris From Intercepted Missiles Falls In Mecca Region

  • Ukraine Peace Talks End With Prisoner Swap But No Breakthrough

  • US Asks Russia To Propose New Security Agreement With Europe

  • G7 Foreign Ministers: China's Actions East Of Taiwan Threaten Stability

  • Nvidia Reportedly Preparing To Oust Jensen Huang

  • Nvidia Turmoil Threatens Trade Truce Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

  • US Commerce Dept Finalising AI Remote Access Rule

  • BoE's Greene: Appropriate To Proactively Tighten Monetary Policy

  • BoJ's Asada Warns Premature Hikes Could Hurt Growth, Inflation

  • Japan Producer Prices Pick Up, Backing Case For Another BoJ Hike

  • Japan's FX Chief Warns Against Forgetting Summer Yen Intervention

  • Dollar Hits 19-Mth High As Fed Hike Bets Grow, Yen Nears 160

  • EU And UK Set To Delay 10% Tariff On Electric Cars – FT

  • Germany Delays New Taxes And Power-Tax Cut, Rolls Back Welfare Cuts

  • Alphabet Kicks Off Asia Bond Sale Amid Scrutiny Of AI Financing

  • CoreWeave Seeks At Least $4B In Investment-Grade Loan Sale

  • Pfizer Secures Up To $1.5B From Blackstone For Obesity Drug Development

  • S Korea's Lee: Samsung Chip Expansion To Spur $30B Additional Fund

Technical & Trade Views

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