Crude Rallies Ahead of Trump/Xi Meeting
Crude Higher on Thursday
Oil prices remain bid today as focus turns to Trump and Xi’s meeting in China. In recent weeks there had been rising optimism that China could help pressure Iran into agreeing a peace deal with the US. However, these hopes were dashed over the weekend as Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal and the standoff continued. Since then, oil prices have rebounded higher with the futures market up around 15% off last week’s lows. Now back above the $100 mark, there is clearly a great deal of uncertainty over the Iran war and the failure so far to make any progress in negotiations.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked with blockades in action from both the US and Iran. While this remains the case, oil prices should remain elevated near-term as supply levels remain heavily constrained. Looking ahead, the summer holiday season is typically a time when demand increases (jet fuel, increased road use for driving holidays) and oil prices could start to push higher again if supply levels remain constrained at that point.
Trump/Xi Meeting
If Trump and Xi cover the war and sound hopeful about the prospect of agreeing a peace deal between the US and Iran, this could help cool oil prices near-term. However, if there are no substantial headlines regarding Iran or the prospect of a peace deal, this could keep oil prices underpinned near-term as uncertainty remains elevated.
Technical Views
Crude
For now, crude remains within the middle of the broad triangle pattern which has framed the consolidation over the last 10 weeks, capped by 101.69 currently. While above 95.06, focus is on a fresh push higher with 114.44 and the triangle top the next target for bulls.
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